房价暴跌的谣言为什么会流行？为啥那么多人愿意相信？
<p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">俗话说得好，好事不出门，坏事传千里。最近诸如“房价暴跌”、“楼市崩盘”的坏消息特别多。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #000000; text-decoration-line: underline;">这种消息一般肇始于某个人的微信朋友圈、微博，甚至某个论坛。不明真相，而又急于寻求真相的人们到处转发，最终弄得人人皆知，并且在传播的过程中变得越来越离谱。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">明源君发现，</span><span style="font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline; color: #000000;">此类引发恐慌的言论，基本都是以点带面、以偏概全</span><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">，是充满了魔幻的现实主义。无论对房企、地产从业人士还是潜在的购房者，除了徒增焦虑、扰乱判断、错失可能的机会外，没有其他的半点用处。而且，</span><span style="font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline; color: #000000;">这也与调控的初衷背道而驰——促进楼市平稳健康发展，而不是暴涨暴跌。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"><br/></span></p><article class="" data-author="Wxeditor" style="padding: 5px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><section style="margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; text-align: center;"><section style="margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; display: inline-block;"><section style="padding-right: 5px; padding-left: 5px; line-height: 25px; font-size: 18px; font-weight: 600; vertical-align: bottom;"><p><span style="font-size: 20px;">01</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: -0.7rem; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; vertical-align: top;"><section class="" style="width: 30.0312px; height: 10px; background-color: rgb(204, 204, 204);"><br/></section></section></section></section></article><article class="" data-author="Wxeditor" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><section><section><section><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: center;"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px; color: #000000;">涨价太久人们已麻木</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: center;"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px; color: #000000;">跌价才算得上是新闻</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: center;"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"></span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; line-height: 1.75em; text-align: center;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13px; font-family: arial; line-height: 20.02px;">?</span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 13px; font-family: arial; line-height: 20.02px;"><br/></span></p></section></section></section></article><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="color: #888888; font-size: 15px;">美国《纽约太阳报》19世纪70年代的编辑主任约翰·博加特把新闻解释为——</span><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #000000; text-decoration-line: underline;">“狗咬人不是新闻，人咬狗才是新闻”。</span><br/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">之所以这样，是因为人们都知道，狗具有狂吠、咬人的天性。人们听到狗叫或者看到狗咬人的新闻，大都认为这是正常的现象。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">但如果“人”咬“狗”,那就令人瞠目结舌了。因为他有悖于人们一贯以来的认知，拥有“奇”的特征，“奇”就是新闻。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">当一种趋势形成，并持续足够长的时间，人们就倾向于认为这种趋势一直会持续下去。</span><span style="color: #888888; font-size: 15px;">比如美国次贷危机前10年，一直被称为“黄金十年”。这期间，美国经济发展良好，大量国际资本流入美国，导致房价持续大幅上涨，让很多人都产生了房价会一直涨下去的错觉，因此中低收入家庭敢于0首付购房，银行也敢向这些人贷款。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline; color: #000000;">以2015年6月为本轮楼市上涨的起点，至今年7月，房地产市场已经连续上涨37个月</span><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">，刷新了中国房地产连续上涨周期的最长纪录。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">6月份，70个大中城市，上涨的城市数量为63个，创此前21个月以来房价上涨城市数量历史之最。8月15日，国家统计局发布的数据则显示，7月份70个大中城市里有65个城市新房价格环比上涨，上涨城市数量达到高点！全域限购的海南三亚，7月新房、二手房价格的环比涨幅都超过了3%，分别涨3.7%和3.1%，位居全国第一！</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"><br/></span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="1.1575984990619137" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1066" _width="677px" src="https://0817ch-bbs.oss-cn-shenzhen.aliyuncs.com/attachment/forum/201808/23/103849lq91uum5ll282826.jpg" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="1.1433962264150943" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1060" _width="677px" src="https://0817ch-bbs.oss-cn-shenzhen.aliyuncs.com/attachment/forum/201808/23/103849zmyffuwutezipqqb.jpg" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><br/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline; color: #000000;">对当下中国楼市来说，“涨价”就像是“狗咬人”，已经不算什么新闻了；“下跌”才是类似人咬狗的事件，才是能引人关注的新闻。</span><br/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">所以，媒体——特别是部分追逐10w+的自媒体绝不会放过任何一个下跌的蛛丝马迹，并大写特写，以此吸引眼球、获取巨大的流量。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">由于在过去的二三十年时间里，中国房地产是资产增值的逻辑。资产的定价取决于增量房交易的定价。例如100万资产升值到1000万的定价，那就需要重新估值、定价、抵押。在这种情况下，如果增量资产的价值发生变化，对资产拥有者来说影响很大。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">这意味着，一旦房价下跌，整个市场上所有房子的价值都将缩水。对开发商来说房子必然不好卖了。对房子的拥有者来说，意味着其资产缩水了。而对那些尚未买房整天期盼房价下跌的群体来说，则是看热闹不嫌事情大。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"><br/></span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"><br/></span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"></span></p><article class="" data-author="Wxeditor" style="padding: 5px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><section style="margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; text-align: center;"><section style="margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; display: inline-block;"><section style="padding-right: 5px; padding-left: 5px; line-height: 25px; font-size: 18px; font-weight: 600; vertical-align: bottom;"><p><span style="font-size: 20px;">02</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: -0.7rem; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; vertical-align: top;"><section class="" style="width: 30.0312px; height: 10px; background-color: rgb(204, 204, 204);"><br/></section></section></section></section></article><article class="" data-author="Wxeditor" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><section><section><section><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: center;"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px; color: #000000;">暴跌的谣言有部分真实性</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: center;"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px; color: #000000;">但是以偏概全、以点带面</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"></span></p><p style="white-space: normal; line-height: 1.75em; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 13px; font-family: arial; line-height: 20.02px;">?</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 13px; font-family: arial; line-height: 20.02px;"><br/></span></p></section></section></section></article><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="color: #888888; font-size: 15px;">8月初，明源君一大早起来就收到好几个朋友的消息（如下图），询问“厦门楼市真的崩盘了吗？”</span><br/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">紧接着，明源君所在的众多金融、房地产群，以及其他各种群内，都在传类似的截图，焦急地询问——厦门楼市到底怎么啦？</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">之后，一些自媒体迅速跟进，更是给这一传言火上浇油。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="1.7777777777777777" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" _width="677px" src="https://0817ch-bbs.oss-cn-shenzhen.aliyuncs.com/attachment/forum/201808/23/103849s42haceepev1cqgq.jpg" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">早在7月，北京通州房价腰斩的谣言同样传得沸沸扬扬。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">1947年，美国心理学家奥尔波特认为，</span><span style="font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline; color: #000000;">谣言的产生有两个基本条件：一、故事的主题必须对传谣者和听谣者有某种重要性；二、真实的事实必须有某种模糊性掩盖起来。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">这些消息传播得如此之广，并且还有人相信，一是因为房价涨跌与每个人息息相关，二是这些消息并非完全无中生有，而是有一定的真实性，只不过是被以偏概全地夸大了。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">那么厦门房价到底有没有跌呢？确实是跌了。这个无论是厦门当地中介门店的经营状况、业主的挂牌价格，还是从链家网成交系统的统计数据，都可以看出来。但</span><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #000000; text-decoration-line: underline;">部分自媒体狂欢式的报道厦门楼市“崩盘”，无疑是夸大其词的。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"><br/></span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.4144088669950739" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1624" _width="677px" src="https://0817ch-bbs.oss-cn-shenzhen.aliyuncs.com/attachment/forum/201808/23/103849cjrizjymjdzv48ve.jpg" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span><br/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="color: #888888; font-size: 15px;">厦门过去多年来，房价一直保持单边上涨的态势。如今，严厉的调控下，不少前期的热点城市都加剧分化，出现微跌，或者涨跌互现的局面。比如上海当前的房价比最高点下跌了15%左右，北京也下跌了一些。厦门有所下跌，实属正常。</span><br/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.40577149587750294" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1698" _width="677px" src="https://0817ch-bbs.oss-cn-shenzhen.aliyuncs.com/attachment/forum/201808/23/103849settptide4trbuip.jpg" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="color: #888888; font-size: 15px;">当时，明源君第一时间询问了厦门当地的不少地产人。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #000000; text-decoration-line: underline;">他们均表示“情绪稳定”，并怒斥了部分自媒体不负责任的炒作报道。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">尽管如此，相信厦门楼市暴跌，并认为其继续下跌的人依然不在少数。因为厦门的地价也跌了！根据热炒厦门房价崩盘自媒体的报道“厦门地价相比2016年几近腰斩，2016年的高价地有的不敢开盘，有的只能挥泪亏本甩卖，相比2017年3月高峰期，岛内每平米已经下降了1万元~1.5万元/平方米，岛外下跌6000元~1万元/平方米”。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline; color: #000000;">既然地价都跌了，那么根据任泽平“长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融”的房地产周期理论。未来房价也一定会跌！</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline; color: #000000;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline; color: #000000;">然而，有时候看到的并不一定是真相。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">就像下面的图1和图2，表达是同一个意思，但是看到图2的人，会更加坚信是货币增发推动了房价上涨，从而更加猛烈地抨击货币超发，因为图2更陡峭，更有视觉冲击力。这正是一些人十分喜欢干的事情。事实上，在分析各地楼市涨跌的时候，类似下图2这样的图表屡见不鲜。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"><br/></span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5823466092572659" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="929" _width="677px" src="https://0817ch-bbs.oss-cn-shenzhen.aliyuncs.com/attachment/forum/201808/23/103849zk94muuaolim4iml.jpg" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">回到厦门的地价同样如此。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #000000; text-decoration-line: underline;">告诉你的都是事实，但是很有迷惑性。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">今年7月2日，翔安X2018P01和翔安X2018P02地块，分别以15.98亿元和17.02亿元的总价成交，折合楼面价分别为21182元/平米和19814元/平米。而此前，距离这两幅地块不远成交的2016XP06地块和2016XP04地块的楼面价分别为37512元/平米和38345元/平米。厦门地价“腰斩”的传闻就是这么来的。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">然而，很少会有人注意到，这些地块的区位属性存在差异。今年7月成交的两幅地块，在两三公里外的非热点区域，而此前成交的两幅地块位于地铁环绕的热点新城，根本不具有可比性。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline; color: #000000;">此前北京通州房价腰斩的传言同样是类似的套路。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">当时，不少媒体报道，6月30日，数十名身着印有“退房”短袖的购房者聚集在通州K2十里春风的售楼处，要求退房，现场有购房者称“刚开盘的时候是4万多一平，现在的售价是2万多/平米，一平米相差了两万，降了一半”。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"><br/></span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">然而，</span><span style="font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline; color: #000000;">实际情况是，十里春风项目东西两区的住宅在产品、配套都不相同，东区是高层+洋房+别墅，西区只有配建保障房的高层。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"><br/></span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">去年销售的产品主要在东区，备案价格是3.7万，实际成交价在3.4万元/平米左右。售楼部被围时，项目在售的主要是西区高层产品，户型为78平米的两居和89平米的三居，团购价格在2.6万元左右。由于产品存在差异，前期的3.4万/平米和现在的2.6万/平米的价差实属正常。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">更让人啼笑皆非的是，根据《华夏时报》报道，围攻售楼处并且要求退房的人居然不是十里春风的业主，而是另一个商办项目。由于从326商办限购加码之后，价格大跌，这些业主受不了，想找一个发泄的出口，于是跑到了十里春风项目。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">参考链家网二手房的成交数据，目前通州区的二手房成交价格为4.5万元/平米左右。通州市场上，并未出现价格明显下跌的项目。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">即便是真实的下跌，比如厦门地价的下降（2018年较2017年下降约2成，较2016年高峰时期下降约三成），很大程度上也主要是受土拍政策影响。比如要求10万平方米以下住宅用地必须一次性销售，使得抗风险能力差的中小开发商根本不敢拿地。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">至于</span><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #000000; text-decoration-line: underline;">不断增多的土地流拍，其实也是市场回归理性的一种表现。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">因为如今房价地价差在不断缩小，而政府依旧在用固有的模式卖地，拍卖土地的限制很多，而底价又依然很高，自然容易流拍。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline; color: #000000;">这恰恰是市场化的逻辑对非市场化土地制度的回应</span><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">，如果房企依然像以前那样疯狂地高价拿地，那才是最不堪的——既不符合调控大势也不符合商业逻辑。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #000000; text-decoration-line: underline;">土地市场理性，意味着房企未来更好的机会。经过精确的测算，赚钱的才拿，不赚钱就不拿了。如果一批体质赢弱的中小房企倒下，反而会给大中房企腾出空间。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"><br/></span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><article class="" data-author="Wxeditor" style="padding: 5px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><section style="margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; text-align: center;"><section style="margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; display: inline-block;"><section style="padding-right: 5px; padding-left: 5px; line-height: 25px; font-size: 18px; font-weight: 600; vertical-align: bottom;"><p><span style="font-size: 20px;">03</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: -0.7rem; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; vertical-align: top;"><section class="" style="width: 30.0312px; height: 10px; background-color: rgb(204, 204, 204);"><br/></section></section></section></section></article><article class="" data-author="Wxeditor" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><section><section><section><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: center;"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;">不加判断地相信谣言</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: center;"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;">只会误判和错失机会</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 13px; font-family: arial; line-height: 20.02px;">?</span></p></section></section></section></article><article class="" data-author="Wxeditor" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><section><section><section><p><span style="font-size: 13px; font-family: arial; line-height: 20.02px;"><br/></span></p></section></section></section></article><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="color: #888888; font-size: 15px;">俗话说，眼见为实，耳听为虚。不过，正如上面分析到的，有时候眼睛看到的，也不一定就是实。想要得知真相，还需要掀开数据的面纱，用心去看。</span><br/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">比如，过去大半年，S城的房价为什么稳定甚至下跌？其中一条非常有效的手段是，去年下半年S城强制要求房企每一次开盘均价都必须下调 5%！</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">换句话说，严厉的调控下，你所看到的数据很可能是严重扭曲的。虽然这种扭曲也有积极的一面，那就是管理好了购房者的预期——房价真的是会下跌越晚买价格就越低，一定程度上遏制住了房价继续大幅上涨，但这毕竟不是全部的真相。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">所以，一个理性的人，不论你是地产从业者，还是购房者，或者旁观者，不应该也不会盲目地相信别人告诉你的涨跌数据，而是要自己去做研究…</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">首先，</span><span style="font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline; color: #000000;">二手房的数据比新房的数据要更真实和有效…</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="color: #888888; font-size: 15px;">2016年10月史上最严的“深八条”至今年6月份，深圳新房住宅成交均价则持续“二十一连跌”（7月份结束下跌趋势，每平米涨了49元）。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="color: #888888; font-size: 15px;"><br/></span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.42080378250591016" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1269" _width="677px" src="https://0817ch-bbs.oss-cn-shenzhen.aliyuncs.com/attachment/forum/201808/23/103849xfy9d599irj0kbj5.jpg" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="color: #888888; font-size: 15px;"><br/></span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="color: #888888; font-size: 15px;">然而，除了一二月份之外，“深八条”公布之后，深圳的二手房成交量相对稳定，且价格一直波动上行。即便今年3月末“三价合一”政策的出台也只是有短暂的回落，之后就再次小幅上升（如上图和下图所示）。</span><br/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="color: #888888; font-size: 15px;"><br/></span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.3830721003134796" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1595" _width="677px" src="https://0817ch-bbs.oss-cn-shenzhen.aliyuncs.com/attachment/forum/201808/23/103849tulizcddcppk1xnb.jpg" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span><br/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="color: #888888; font-size: 15px;">其次，市均价有很强的欺骗性，看盘均价更有意义。</span><br/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">由于没有中位数的数据，我们通常看到的都是平均数。但，就像人们调侃的——把我和两马（马云和马化腾）一王（王健林）的财富一平均，我也是土豪一样。如果将市区的房价和郊区的房价一起平均，数据上很可能会呈现出郊区的房价上涨而市区的房价却在下跌。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">当前，不同城市在分化，同一个城市内部也在分化。整个城市可能是横盘的，但某些区域在涨，某些区域横盘或者微跌。比如</span><span style="font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline; color: #000000;">2015年，深圳曾经出现过盘均价（某个楼盘或小区的平均价格）上涨超过50%，但市均价（整个城市的平均价格）增幅还不到10%的情况。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">这一点，不仅对购房者很重要，对地产行业从业者也很重要。有些人张口就来——三四线城市不行，不是懒（没做研究）就是无知。三四线是一个非常大的概念，即便具体到某一个城市，整个城市没有大的机会，某些区域依然存在机会。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline; color: #000000;">怎么看一个城市的潜力？看峰均比——就是房价的峰值（最高房价）跟平均房价的比值，比值越大，该城的潜力越大。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">所以，这几年我们看到很多三四五线城市，因为一些品牌房企进去之后，房价涨得更快，</span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline;">一是大的行情本就如此，二是这些品牌房企还是有一些自己的优势，比如园林景观造得比别人好，满足了当地市场的改善型需求。 </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline;"><br/></span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><br/></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: #000000;">小结</span></strong></span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: underline; color: #000000;">当“房住不炒”已经成为房地产调控的核心逻辑。类似厦门这样城市的房价，必然会逐步回归理性。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">根据易居研究院、CRIC等所统计的80个城市中，厦门高房价与实际收入的偏离度达到41%，位居首位。</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">然而，厦门楼市的调整也并不是全面的、崩盘式的，更多是楼市的分化。前期那些被过度炒作的“老破小”，下降是正常，但品质较好的楼盘，价格依然比较坚挺……</span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;"> </span></p><p class="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #888888;">当前，处于政策调控的当口，只要写楼市暴跌、崩盘，阅读量很容易到10w+。因为房价确实不低，很多人都觉得买房困难，跟着大V一起抨击楼市，正好可以发泄情绪。不过，</span><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #000000; text-decoration-line: underline;">真相和答案从来不存在于情绪中。如果被情绪左右，因此失去对市场的正确判断，购房者可能错失入市的最佳机会；一些房企也可能被误伤。这些损失谁来承担呢？</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px; color: #000000;"><br/></span></p><p><br/></p> 废话！房价高了，哪个买得起，还不是富人更富，老百姓吃亏，你就不想房价低？ 因为大家都是这么想的，哈哈 老百姓想一想就好了，还是要高层政府操控，我们没办法 你说的点都不切合实际。拿一线城市的情况就能以偏概全？一线城市不论是经济还是人口都足以支撑住它们的高房价高消费。三四线城市都是属于人口输出型地域，房子修的又多又密没有丁点规划。一二线城市有一千万人，能卖出去三千万套房子。三四线城市一百万人，修一千万套房子？都卖给鬼住啊！至于国家注入那两万亿，都是给地方政府擦屁股用的，不然楼市一崩盘，大家一起完蛋。房价陡然下跌不可能的，只能说是慢慢的回归理性价格。反正中介公司是趴在老百姓身上吸血吸饱了的。
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