博鳌论坛透露重要信息，房贷利率可能还要涨？
<p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">今天，在博鳌论坛上，刚刚履新不久的央行行长易纲透露不少信息。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"> </span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">对于货币政策，易纲表示：</span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"> </span></p><blockquote style="padding-left: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal;"><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; color: #888888;">目前我国实行的是审慎的货币政策，我们没有任何量化宽松、零利率政策。</span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; color: #888888;">现在主要央行都在收紧利率，开始退出扩张，也会进行缩表，我们已经有很长时间期待这样的政策发生，我们也已经准备好了。</span></p></blockquote><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"> </span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">这段话</span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">的言外之意就是，</span><strong style="border: 0px;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体; color: #007AAA;">全球都在进行缩表加息，中国已经做好应对的准备。换句话说，货币收紧，将会是未来一段时期的常态。</span></strong></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"> </span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">对于利率，易纲指出：</span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"> </span></p><blockquote style="padding-left: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal;"><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; color: #888888;">我们的利率目前有两条渠道，一个是基准利率，还有一个是市场利率。最好的利率改革方式就是为了使两条利率轨道逐渐融合，更向市场利率融合，让这两条轨道更加审慎。</span></p></blockquote><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"> </span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">就长期而言，这段话颇有深意，那就是</span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体; color: #007AAA;"><strong style="border: 0px;">利率市场化</strong></span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">再进一步，双轨制将逐渐向单轨制转变，对于长期坐吃存贷款利差的金融机构，显然是大利空。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><br/></span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">就短期而言，目前，基准利率已经严重滞后于市场利率，</span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">房贷利率动辄上浮10%-20%早已是家常便饭，而企业实际贷款成本甚至比基准利率高出</span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: Calibri;">50%</span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">以上。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"> </span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">这种背景下，要想实现</span><strong style="border: 0px;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体; color: #007AAA;">基准利率与市场利率的合二为一</span></strong><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">，要么是调整基准利率，让基准利率跟得上市场利率上浮的步伐，要么是直接取消存贷款基准利率，让市场利率来决定一切。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"> </span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">无论如何，按照目前的趋势，利率持续上浮都是大势所趋。无论会不会在明面上进行加息，起码市场上早已感受到实际利率上浮的威力，这方面，刚需购房者最为感同身受。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"> </span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">其实，早在一个月之前的全国两会上，央行副行长潘功胜说得更明白：</span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体; color: #007AAA;"><strong style="border: 0px;">最近，房贷利率略有上升，但从长远的周期来看，仍然处于比较低的水平。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"> </span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">最后，关于杠杆率，易纲表示，</span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><br/></span></p><blockquote style="padding-left: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal;"><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; color: #888888;">我们确实有高杠杆率、高债务率问题，这种高杠杆率是我们进行审慎货币政策的背景。我们首先会使债务率稳定下来，第二步是让债务结构，比如政府债、公司债、居民债，中央债务、地方债务的结构进行优化。</span></p></blockquote><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"> </span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong style="border: 0px;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #007AAA;">防风险去杠杆</span></strong><span style="border: 0px;">，这是今年中国经济最大的关键词，也是理解中国楼市变化的根本立足点。</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><br/></span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">防的是金融风险，去的从地方政府到企业再到居民买房加起来的各种杠杆，这其中，居民家庭部门的杠杆首当其冲。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><br/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; border: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", YaHei, SimHei, Hei, Arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">所以，无论是购房还是投资，都得明白大趋势。跟着趋势走，才不会被割韭菜。</span></p><p><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><br/></span></p><p><br/></p>
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