三四线人走了，为什么房价反而上涨？
<section data-role="paragraph" class="_135editor" style="border: 0px none;"><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">2017年北京和上海人口均出现负增长，在一线城市严格控制人口的情况下，三四线城市是否会出现人口回流？这些城市的房价上涨和消费升级又是否能持续？</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #ab1942; font-size: 24px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;"></strong></span></p><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; border-width: 0px; border-style: none; border-color: initial;"><section data-width="100%" style="max-width: 100%; width: 100%; text-align: center;"><section style="display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; width: 80px; height: 30px; background-image: url("https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/TR6DOk2ZH1siavR77fv23MlXI3VuuoqU7lRePI7ddDgq7GOcujazl7pJUiajGtNacqcqVY4eWRbo45PtiaBhdqS4A/640?wx_fmt=png"); background-size: 100%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: center center; background-color: #c02929;"><section data-width="100%" style="max-width: 100%; width: 100%; line-height: 30px;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #ffffff; font-size: 20px;">0<span class="" data-original-title="" title="" style="max-width: 100%;">1</span></span></section></section></section></section><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1; text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #ab1942;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;">人口流动的真相</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">回答这些问题的第一步，我们首先需要弄清三四线城市是否出现了人口回流。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;">人口仍然流向一二线，三四线人口回流证据不足。</strong></span>按照统计局的划分，我们将城市分为一线城市、二线城市和三四线及以下城市。根据常住人口增速来看，三四线及以下城市的人口增速一直处于0.3%左右，低于全国人口平均增速0.5%，也远低于一线城市和二线城市的人口增速。这说明人口仍旧存在由三四线向一二线城市涌入的情况。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">但一二线城市之间出现分化，一线人口流入放缓而二线人口流入加剧。</span></strong>2017年一线城市的常住人口增速下降至1.4%，尽管二线城市2017年数据还未完全公布，但是从趋势来看，人口流入呈现持续上升态势。这说明，<strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">二线城市承接了一线城市的人口流出。</span></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" width="auto" data-backw="542" data-backh="271" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqakkeB3aib3OAjKweocstuqQTQDdgNwKm9kOOBBMeNPHq5dVUDf62VuzYw/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">一线城市的人口流入放缓主要与严格控制人口规模直接相关</span></strong>，北京和上海的常住人口在2017年双双出现负增长，而广州和深圳的人口仍然保持了3%和5%的正增长。近年来，上海和北京不断提高落户条件，而广州和深圳放宽人才落户限制，两者的区别恰恰说明人口流入放缓与行政控制人口相关。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5018050541516246" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" width="auto" data-backw="542" data-backh="272" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqakTZOiceQMPL9AezUtiaNDzbkxjBGepp1YxQpEHG4Kcnibcu7mEDRpgLEUg/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">但是<strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">在一线严控人口的情况下，人们并没有选择回到家乡，而是转投二线城市怀抱。</span></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">面对一线城市的人口流出，二线城市纷纷把握时机，竞相出台优惠政策以吸引人才落户。例如，长沙和成都出台了先落户后就业的政策，本科及以上毕业生凭借毕业证就可以办理落户；而南京、杭州、长沙等地还为符合条件的应届生提供了各项补贴。当然，<strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">除了优惠政策以外，二线城市的经济迅猛发展也是人口持续流入的重要因素。</span></strong>以杭州、天津、成都、武汉为首的强二线城市的人口增速要明显快于西部和北部的弱二线省会城市。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.33245614035087717" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1140" width="auto" data-backw="542" data-backh="180" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqakvFPAwTwg05a5TJ2dqNibbUeDKe5l2yZBLv9wIZU4RPvIrMMibwaBgicOQ/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">少数三四线城市人口出现流入，一部分是因为一二线城市的溢出效应使得部分周边三四线城市人口也出现流入，</span></strong>例如昆山市的常住人口增速一直维持在1%以上，2016年甚至达到4.6%。<strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">另一部分则是因为务工人员返乡养老</span></strong>，早期外出务工人员较多的城市，可能存在大量年龄较大的务工人员返乡养老的情况，例如广元、信阳和永州。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">但是这一部分占比有限，<strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">三四线的人口增速整体依然低于全国平均增速，意味着整体来看人口在流出。</span></strong>根据我们对160个三四线及以下城市的统计，2010年-2016年常住人口增速高于全国人口平均增速的城市仅有63个，其中人口增速超过1%城市仅有5座。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.33393501805054154" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" width="auto" data-backw="542" data-backh="181" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqakYCN8oyf4lK7wKeppicgLXPqMm40FVVibekdrbewdMeDcgFGvj022JJjg/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">当然，三四线城市的城镇人口占比在逐年提升，这一结构性的变化不容忽视。</span></strong>2010年以来，我国每年平均减少农村人口1400万人，由于一二线城市的农村人口占比较低，所以城镇化对三四线城市的城镇人口提升效果更强。由于数据的可得性，我们计算了部分省份三四线城市2010年-2014年的农村人口变化幅度，结果发现大部分的三四线城市农村人口缩减幅度均大于全国平均水平。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.33393501805054154" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" width="auto" data-backw="542" data-backh="181" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqak4InlibLbcY7yMjv1CflMzMybL5QkONYTjibjbJEMT7j7p3Zb5Aycb87w/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;">展望未来，三四线城市人口仍将流出，二线城市将成为人口流入的主要目的地。</strong></span>根据十三五规划，目前上海、北京和广州的人口已经接近自己设定的2020年人口上限，而深圳的人口增长空间也不大。预计未来，一线城市人口流入将持续放缓。而二线城市相比于三四线拥有更好的生活资源和更多的发展空间，这一趋势中期不会发生改变。在一线严控人口的情况下，未来年轻人仍然会选择加入二线城市而不是回到家乡。因此，三四线城市的人口流出现象将会持续。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">当然，<strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">未来一二线周边的部分三四线城市也存在人口流入的情况</span></strong>，并且随着一二线城市的房价上涨和产业外迁，溢出效应会更加明显，未来这部分城市和其他三四线城市将出现分化。同时，人口老龄化以后，部分农民工陆续返乡养老，预计这一趋势在未来也将会逐步增强，但是并不改变年轻人向一二线城市流入的趋势。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5144404332129964" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" width="auto" data-backw="542" data-backh="279" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqakjWAzKm8SuG1QAUP0K9cBxK6bmO2g2KGZvPNgspmMcoTEVhCmuMbO5w/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; border-width: 0px; border-style: none; border-color: initial;"><section data-width="100%" style="max-width: 100%; width: 100%; text-align: center;"><section style="display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; width: 80px; height: 30px; background-image: url("https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/TR6DOk2ZH1siavR77fv23MlXI3VuuoqU7lRePI7ddDgq7GOcujazl7pJUiajGtNacqcqVY4eWRbo45PtiaBhdqS4A/640?wx_fmt=png"); background-size: 100%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: center center; background-color: #c02929;"><section data-width="100%" style="max-width: 100%; width: 100%; line-height: 30px;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #ffffff; font-size: 20px;">02</span></section></section></section></section><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #ab1942; font-size: 24px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1; text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #ab1942;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;">房价上涨的真相</strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #ab1942;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">尽管三四线城市人口回流非常有限，但是三四线的房价全面上涨是事实。</span></strong>2016年以来，一线城市房价率先上涨，随后二三线城市接棒，而随着调控政策的逐步落地，一二线城市房价增幅开始放缓。但是三四线城市房价仍然维持12%左右的涨幅，特别是部分三四线城市下属的县级城市也出现房价大幅上涨的情况。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">既然三四线城市并没有出现持续的人口回流，那么是什么导致了这两年房价的快速上涨？</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5018050541516246" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" width="auto" data-backw="542" data-backh="272" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqakVNOF56PwH0nsbwPLvciadTJubt03O7WG1urXg5ByqNXSGcTZxylhmvg/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;">实际上，人口对房价的影响属于长期变量，而房价短期的大幅增长与三四线城市的棚改货币化密不可分。</strong></span>棚户区改造从2005年就启动了，但是货币化安置是2015年才开始实施。棚改货币化的提出本身就是为了帮助三四线城市去库存。由央行给国开行发放抵押补充贷款，支持国开行向地方政府的棚改工程提供资金，然后地方政府支付拆迁补偿款给被拆迁的居民，居民再用此款购买本地的新建住房，随后政府再通过拍卖拆迁地块偿还国开行贷款。在这一个过程中，资金从央行流出，经过国开行和地方政府最终为拆迁居民提供资金，这一做法消化了本地库存，但在短时间内增加了大量需求，会推动房价上涨。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">在房价上涨的过程中，部分在一二线城市工作的人们，尽管没有回到家乡工作，但是面对一二线高企的房价和家乡不断上涨的房价，两相比较也选择了在家乡购房。此外，还有部分非拆迁居民，看着上涨的房价选择加入购房大军用于投资。因此，<span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;">可以说本轮三四线城市房价的上涨由棚改货币化引起，随后又因涨价凭空制造了部分投资性的购房需求。</strong></span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.33393501805054154" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" width="auto" data-backw="542" data-backh="181" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqakCuO5Q0TAPyyUcASoT1Y1KJegP8XXj1qSpDLibk8f7wR1CYIicnqZic1HA/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">那么，未来三四线城市的房价还有进一步的上涨空间吗？</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">要判断房价的中长期趋势，我们还是需要回到人口的问题上来。根据我们对31个城市的分析，房价与人口长期存在明显的正相关性，只有人口长期流入的城市，其房价才有长期上涨的空间。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">而回到三四线城市上来，前面的分析已经得出未来三四线城市整体是处于人口流出的状态，当然不排除小部分城市存在人口的流入，但是大部分人口的增长幅度也远小于一二线城市。这说明<strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">相比于一二线城市来说，三四线城市整体不具备房价长期上涨的基础。</span></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5072202166064982" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" width="auto" data-backw="542" data-backh="275" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqakc3W8mzvBiaPTWj843SALiato51d68yJkhu0jB5mZtCw3NHtrtV7biatLA/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">尽管三四线城市中大量农村进城人口会带来本地新增需求，但是近几年房地产销售规模增长过快。前面已经提到，随着城镇化的推进，三四线城市的农村人口大量转移为城市人口。他们或因为拆迁安置进城生活，或因为子女求学进城购房，或因为追求更好的生活环境迁入城中。但是，在城镇人口数量增加保持稳定的情况下，三四线城市的房地产销售面积却逐年抬升，这说明<strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">近几年的房地产销售实际上透支了未来很长一段时间的购房需求，以短期非常规需求支撑的房价上涨难以维系。</span></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5018050541516246" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" width="auto" data-backw="542" data-backh="272" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqakTU3u24HZW06l3ztJ8Y3jvQqsdKyU4MyKMcI2bqcyD2ic9Wv2GNa8eTg/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #ab1942; font-size: 24px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;"></strong></span></p><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; border-width: 0px; border-style: none; border-color: initial;"><section data-width="100%" style="max-width: 100%; width: 100%; text-align: center;"><section style="display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; width: 80px; height: 30px; background-image: url("https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/TR6DOk2ZH1siavR77fv23MlXI3VuuoqU7lRePI7ddDgq7GOcujazl7pJUiajGtNacqcqVY4eWRbo45PtiaBhdqS4A/640?wx_fmt=png"); background-size: 100%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: center center; background-color: #c02929;"><section data-width="100%" style="max-width: 100%; width: 100%; line-height: 30px;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #ffffff; font-size: 20px;">03</span></section></section></section></section><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1; text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #ab1942;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;">消费增长的真相</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">尽管三四线城市的人口没有回流，但三四线城市的总消费增速却远高于一线城市，甚至在近两年超过二线。</span></strong>2012年以来，一线城市的消费增速出现明显下滑，社会消费零售总额同比增速从12%持续下降到2017年的7.3%。相比之下，二线城市和三四线及以下城市的消费增速下降幅度较小，2016年和2017两年三四线城市消费增速还出现了反弹。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" width="auto" data-backw="542" data-backh="271" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqak2oawYg7QcBLNVoRfLVz5lWaDjCZiamhQgu3glAtrdfnW54UMaRhwiaaQ/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;">不同城市之间消费的差异实际上与房价高低相关，而非人口变化。</strong></span>房价对消费存在财富效应和挤出效应，在房价处于较低水平的时候，房价上涨会增加居民的总资产，并促进消费；而在房价处于较高水平时，房价上涨往往会增加居民的债务负担和居住开支，从而挤出消费。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">目前来看，房价上涨对三四线城市的财富效应更明显，而对一二线城市的挤出效应更明显，这或许能够部分解释不同城市消费差异的现象。</span></strong>根据我们对包含一二三线的45个城市2016年的数据进行分析，结果发现房价收入比较高的城市，房价上涨1%只会带来消费增速上涨0.2%；而对房价收入比较低的城市，其房价上涨1%会带来7.9%的消费增速。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5131578947368421" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="836" width="auto" data-backw="542" data-backh="278" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqakpXeCeE2aFd67Tw0UNxUNHicOsBibibOwZJlO62Ntjp3XiaibsXAEHibpl0MA/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">同时，前面提到城镇化的推进为三四线城市带来了大量新的城镇居民。2017年我国农村居民人均消费为11000元，而城镇居民的消费24000元，城乡消费支出的差别一方面来自收入的差别，另一方面也与生活环境相关。农村居民入城之后，随着生活方式和消费观念的改变，消费规模会扩大，这也是当前三四线城市消费增长较快的另一因素。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">因此，<strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">在三四线城市并没有出现明显人口回流的情况下，房价上涨的财富效应和农村居民入城才是三四线城市消费强劲增长的真正原因！</span></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5108303249097473" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" width="auto" data-backw="542" data-backh="277" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqakOyia51JtqTgSHUEYfTk1cCjTiaIOXZtGUdaMxfYfnicrGTH64nBfpva0Q/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">那么消费增长的故事是否还会延续？</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">随着城镇化的推进，三四线城市的消费提升还有一定空间。目前我国城镇化率仅为58%，相比与发达国家还有很高的上升空间，而未来城镇化的提升很大一块将依赖于本地农村居民向城镇居民的转变，因此，未来农村居民入城的趋势不会改变。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">但是<strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">本轮房价上涨对三四线城市消费的挤出效应在未来将逐步强化。</span></strong>经过2016-2017年的上涨，部分三四线城市房价收入比已经超过不少一二线城市。同时，本轮房价上涨周期中，三四线城市居民也出现加杠杆买房的现象，导致居民负债规模扩大。一线城市的消费增速下滑部分原因就在于住房相关支出对其他消费的挤出，而随着三四线城市房价上涨，未来高房价对消费的抑制情况也终将在三四线城市上演。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5144404332129964" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" width="auto" data-backw="540" data-backh="283" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqakppYvvCo1fMyZw6X7ibTorZWoFhzmw4ia32QjUQ0Jpficy6s4ibSjTybTFg/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="background-color: #eeedeb; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: #eeedeb; background-size: 22px; background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat; width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #ab1942; font-size: 24px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;"></strong></span></p><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; border-width: 0px; border-style: none; border-color: initial;"><section data-width="100%" style="max-width: 100%; width: 100%; text-align: center;"><section style="display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; width: 80px; height: 30px; background-image: url("https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/TR6DOk2ZH1siavR77fv23MlXI3VuuoqU7lRePI7ddDgq7GOcujazl7pJUiajGtNacqcqVY4eWRbo45PtiaBhdqS4A/640?wx_fmt=png"); background-size: 100%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: center center; background-color: #c02929;"><section data-width="100%" style="max-width: 100%; width: 100%; line-height: 30px;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #ffffff; font-size: 20px;">04</span></section></section></section></section><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1; text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #ab1942;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;">地产投资承压，消费增速下滑</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">基于前面的分析，我们可以发现三四线城市并没有出现人口回流，而城镇化的推进一定程度增加了购房和消费需求。<span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;">未来人口流出三四线城市的趋势不会改变，而城镇化仍会推进。</strong></span>但是近几年销售增长透支了住房需求，在没有人口长期流入的基础上，<strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">未来三四线城市房价上涨不可持续。</span></strong>而本轮房价上涨过程中，三四线城市居民也存在加杠杆的情况，尽管城镇化和收入提升将促进三四线消费增长，但不断上涨的房价将对消费产生抑制作用，<strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">未来三四线城市消费增长会有一定程度放缓。</span></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">针对三四线城市的分析之所以重要，主要原因在于这些城市的消费和投资占全国总量的比重都接近或者超过50%，并且近几年贡献了大量涨幅。尽管一二线城市更加受人关注，但是三四线城市未来的变化对经济总量的影响更大。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">未来，三四线城市的房价回落将对我国房地产投资产生较大的向下压力。一旦房价不再上涨，目前透支的购房需求将在未来很长一段时间导致三四线城市房地产供需失衡，压制房地产销售。由于房地产销售领先于房地产投资，<strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">未来三四线城市的地产投资将出现回落，带动我国房地产总投资下降。</span></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.33393501805054154" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" width="auto" data-backw="542" data-backh="181" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqakRXW9jq5vyW49bQpkeT1aAdHvq8xSB0iaDKTyhyzgG7IcBrSNm8SAILw/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">未来，三四线城市的消费增长放缓将拖累我国消费增速。</span></strong>近年来，三四线及以下城市消费占全国消费的比重稳定在60%左右，这意味着三四线城市消费增速下滑1个百分点将拖累全国消费增速下降0.6个百分点。目前，三四线城市的房价上涨对消费的影响正从促进转变为挤出，未来高房价对我国消费的挤出效应将更为明显。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5180505415162455" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" width="auto" data-backw="542" data-backh="281" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqak8icJNgHQJtRiaPs0CMta2AdPDKZBn1icU9JOv6FXB27ud2VFwcc2iccH3A/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">尽管房价上涨会抑制消费总量，但消费升级并没有结束。</span></strong>消费升级意味着消费质量的提升，对不同城市的居民有不同的含义。对于一二线城市的居民来说，消费升级的意义在于对高端创新消费的追求；而对于三四线及以下城市居民来说，消费升级的意义更多在于品牌消费的扩容。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5144404332129964" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" width="auto" data-backw="542" data-backh="279" _width="100%" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/xc58h05Rm6yyrCHMah5M5C1VibHbeFqakOD86460VD5OcJwXgxj3ffX5xIFKNlMeM8icx74pS1XX8fZibI86QIEgw/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="width: 100%; visibility: visible !important;"/></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; widows: 1; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px;">2017年汽车行业整体增速几乎为零，但是SUV型汽车的增速依然接近20%，而新能源汽车的增速接近50%。汽车销售的结构性变化，反映出居民对高品质消费的追求。而今年的315晚会上，央视曝光了三四线城市及乡镇地区存在山寨食品傍名牌的现象，这一现象又反映出部分居民在追求品牌消费的同时，对品牌的认知度不够。<strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;">未来，一二线城市将成为创新消费的主阵营，而三四线城市将成为知名消费品牌扩展市场的蓝海。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px; margin-left: 8px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; color: #3e3e3e; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #007aaa;"><br style="max-width: 100%;"/></span></strong></p><p><br/></p></section>
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